Author Archives: A.R.B.

Fiscal Federalism and Tax Effort in the U.S. States

Putting it all together, Nicholson-Crotty is telling us that federal grants-in-aid are little more than a redistribution of the income tax burden from liberal states to conservative ones.

The federal government gives billions of dollars to the 50 state governments as grants-in-aid, whether to fund schools, Medicaid, or whatever. The idea is this: The federal government [...]

Is Voting Contagious? Evidence from Two Field Experiments

This “contagion effect” has a stronger effect on turnout than education, income, or age.

Nowhere will you find a human relationship associated with more similarities in voting behavior than you will find between a husband and wife. But what causes husbands and wives to embrace similar ideologies, issue positions, and turnout rates? Maybe it’s just that [...]

Social Pressure and Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment

Suppose that the government made a habit of sending your neighbors a letter after every election, telling them whether or not you had bothered to vote. Would you be more likely to turn out?

Suppose that the government made a habit of sending your neighbors a letter after every election, telling them whether or not you [...]

Vote Buying or Turnout Buying? Machine Politics and the Secret Ballot

Suppose that the Republicans started knocking doors on your street offering you and your neighbors a new flatscreen television if you come out and vote for their candidates in the next election. Or suppose that the Democrats offered you “street money,” a direct cash payment in exchange for coming out to vote for them. How [...]

Cycles in American National Electoral Politics, 1854-2006: Statistical Evidence and an Explanatory Model

In every case, he was startlingly correct; as predicted, the nation’s ideological mood reversed about every 15 years.

In 1924, Arthur Schlesinger famously predicted that “Coolidge-style conservatism would last till about 1932.” Later, he added that the “prevailing liberal mood would run its course in about 1947.” In 1949, he predicted once again that “the recession [...]

Framing Public Opinion in Competitive Democracies

The public wouldn’t get the policies it wants; it would get the policies it was duped into wanting.

In a democracy, politicians and policy outcomes should be responsive to changes in public opinion. But what if politicians (or others, such as media commentators) were able to manipulate public opinion through propaganda or other, more subtle methods? [...]